Average Household Holiday Spend May Drop 6.6%
The average amount of money each U.S. household spends this holiday shopping season will drop 6.6% [pdf], according to a new survey of Christmas gift spending intentions from The Conference Board. The forecast predicts the average U.S. household will spend $390 during the 2009 holiday shopping season, compared to $418 in 2008.
In addition to a lower average spend, households are also less likely to increase spending and more likely to decrease spending this year. Twenty-six percent of households plan to spend more than $500 this year, down from 27% last year. Meanwhile, 35% plan to spend $200-$500 this year, down from 37% this year; and 39% plan to spend less than $200, up from 35% last year.
Online Shoppers Seek Holiday Savings
When it comes to Internet shopping, U.S. consumers are focusing on small-ticket items this year. The Consumer Internet Barometer, a separate report produced by The Conference Board, indicates that 41% of consumers will purchase books online this holiday season, with another 40% planning to purchase apparel. Other popular lower-cost items on consumers’ online shopping lists this holiday season include toys and games (35%), movie videos and DVDs (33%) and music CDs (19%).
The most popular big-ticket item consumers plan to purchase online during the 2009 holiday season is electronics, cited by 23% of survey respondents. However, only 13% plan to purchase computer software online this holiday season, and a mere 0.5% of consumers intend to buy jewelry online. In an additional sign of online consumers’ budget-conscious approach to holiday shopping this year, 90% of survey respondents said free shipping is a major incentive to purchase goods online.
The Conference Board is the most pessimistic major holiday spending forecast so far in terms of its predictions of an almost 7% decline in average spending. Nielsen, Deloitte and Retail Forward have all predicted essentially flat holiday sales, while the National Retail Federation (NRF) has predicted a 1% sales decline.
Meanwhile, the American Express Spending & Saving Tracker is relatively optimistic in its predictions for 2009 holiday spending. According to the Spending & Saving Tracker, 10% of consumers plan to spend more during the 2009 holiday shopping season than during the 2008 season, and 43% plan to spend the same amount.
In addition, the Spending and Saving Tracker shows that the internet will be a popular resource for holiday shoppers this year. Seventy-nine percent of overall respondents plan to use the internet as a tool for holiday shopping, 45% plan to purchase items online, 28% will use the internet to buy hard-to-find items, 27% will use the internet for product research, and 25% will go online for gift ideas. Free shipping was also a significant motivator for Spending and Saving Tracker respondents, with 45% saying they could be tempted to start their holiday shopping early if they were offered free or faster shipping.
The 2009 Holiday Forecast from comparison shopping site PriceGrabber.com corroborates these findings. PriceGrabber’s research indicates 70% of consumers plan to save money by performing research and comparison shopping online this year, compared to 38% last year. And according to the Deloitte 24th Annual Holiday Survey, 19% of consumers plan to access the internet via their mobile phones while shopping to find store locations, obtain coupons and sales information, as well as research products and prices. This percentage rose to 39% in the 18 to 29 age group.
Market research firm TNS conducted both surveys of U.S. consumers’ holiday spending intentions. The survey of Christmas gift spending intentions was conducted among a nationally representative sample of U.S. households in November 2009. The Consumer Internet Barometer was conducted among 10,000 U.S. households in October 2009.