Nielsen Wishes You a Flat Christmas
According to a recent survey from The Nielsen Company, the 2009 holiday season should deliver virtually flat sales results of $90 billion this year. This figure is a 0.03% increase from approximately $89.95 billion spent during the 2008 holiday season.
The survey indicates 44% of consumer households will spend the same on the 2009 holidays as they did in 2008, with 42% planning to spend less and only 4% planning to spend more. Nielsen research also indicates that 20% of households have no plans to entertain at or away from home this year. Despite this result, products associated with home entertainment such as cookware, kitchen items, bed and bath accessories and alcoholic beverages are expected to perform well this year.
In addition, Nielsen predicts apparel, toys and technology will be the most popular product categories, with gift cards also expected to perform well. The survey indicates value retailers, such as dollar stores, online, discounters and club stores will be popular with holiday shoppers. Meanwhile, office supply, pet stores, home improvement and drug retailers are expected to perform poorly.
Two other recent research reports also predict flat holiday sales performance this year. Retail Forward expects flat holiday growth in all retail channels except automotive, food, and drug. Unlike Nielsen, Retail Forward predicts a 2% decline in apparel sales (marking an improvement from last year’s 9% drop). However, Retail Forward is in sync with Nielsen with its predictions for a 2% decline in home goods retailer sales and 2.5% increase in sales at mass retailers.
In addition, research firm Deloitte is also predicting flat holiday sales this year. Deloitte’s 2009 holiday forecastexpects total 2009 holiday sales to register a 0% change, excluding motor vehicles and gasoline, from last year. This would be an improvement from what Deloitte tracked as last season’s 2.4% decrease, the first decline in holiday sales according to Deloitte’s analysis of Commerce Department data dating back to 1967.
Other recent research also indicates this year’s holiday sales will likely be soft. According to a consumer study commissioned by online job site CareerBuilder.com, 61% of U.S. workers live paycheck-to-paycheck to make ends meet. These workers make no or minimal contributions to retirement accounts, and also tend to avoid all but the most necessary purchases. The study also indicated that few consumers, including more affluent consumers who do have disposable income, have a desire to start holiday shopping early this year.
In one other indication holiday sales will be sluggish this year, at least in the department store sector, according to the September American Express Spending and Saving Tracker update, 69% of consumers across all income levels said a department store discount would not be enough to motivate them to start holiday shopping early.