GDP Grows Less than Original Estimate - Update
The real U.S. GDP (gross domestic product), which represents the output of goods and services produced by labor and property located in the U.S., grew for the fourth straight quarter in Q2 2010, according to the second quarterly estimate from the Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA). However, the 1.6% rate of increase (revised from the advance estimate of 2.4%) is down from 2.7% in Q1 2010 and 5.6% in Q4 2009, but still demonstrating a better trend than the three straight quarters of negative growth the GDP underwent from Q4 2008 – Q2 2009.
According to estimates from the BEA, the increase in Q2 2010 real GDP positive contributions from nonresidential fixed investment, personal consumption expenditures, exports, federal government spending, private inventory investment, and residential fixed investment. Imports, which are a subtraction in the calculation of GDP, increased.
The deceleration in real GDP in the second quarter primarily reflected a sharp acceleration in imports and a sharp deceleration in private inventory investment that were partly offset by an upturn in residential fixed investment, an acceleration in nonresidential fixed investment, an upturn in state and local government spending, and an acceleration in federal government spending.
Final sales of computers added 0.03 percentage points (revised from 0.04) to the second quarter change in real GDP after adding 0.1 percentage point to the first quarter change. Motor vehicle output subtracted 0.08 percentage points (revised from 0.01) from the second quarter change in real GDP after adding 0.74 percentage points to the first quarter change.
The price index for gross domestic purchases, which measures prices paid by U.S. residents, increased 0.1% in Q2 2010, compared with an increase of 2.1% in Q1 2010.
Excluding food and energy prices, the price index for gross domestic purchases increased 0.8%(revised from 0.9%) in Q2 2010, compared with an increase of 1.6% in Q1 2010.
Other notable Q2 2010 GDP figures, including “real” estimates chained to 2000 dollars, follow:
- Real personal consumption expenditures increased 2% (revised from 1.6%) in the second quarter, compared with an increase of 1.9% in the first.
- Real exports of goods and services increased 9.1% (revised from 10.3%) in the second quarter, compared with an increase of 11.4% in the first.
- Real imports of goods and services increased 32.4% (revised from 28.8%) in the second quarter, a significant increase from 11.2% growth in the first.
- Real gross domestic purchases, which are purchases by U.S. residents of goods and services wherever produced, increased 4.9% (revised from 5.1%) in the second quarter, compared with an increase of 3.9% in the first.
Signals Mixed on Goods Movement in US
Figures on imports/exports, freight shipments and port activity suggest more goods came into the U.S. than were shipped out during June 2010. Figures from the Bureau of Economic Analysis show imports falling and exports growing during the month, and data from the National Retail Federation (NRF) suggests an increased amount of freight is coming into U.S. ports. Supporting the notion that more goods are arriving in the country is analysis from the Bureau of Transportation Services (BTS) showing a slight increase in freight traveling across the country.
According to the Bureau of Economic Analysis, on a monthly basis, total exports fell 0.1% from $152.4 billion to $150.4 billion. Total imports climbed 3%, from $194.4 billion to $200.3 billion. The goods deficit increased 14%, from $54.3 billion to $62 billion. Exports of goods fell 2.1%, from $107.3 billion to $105 billion. Imports of goods rose 3.3%, from $161.6 billion to $167 billion.
Meanwhile, The Freight Transportation Services Index (TSI), which measures the month-to-month changes in freight shipments in ton-miles, rose 0.2% between May and June 2010, improving after a decline of 0.3% the previous month.
The Global Port Tracker, a monthly analysis of import cargo volume at the nation’s major retail container ports from the National Retail Federation (NRF) and Hackett Associates, increased 4% in June 2010, following a 10% increase in May 2010, 7% increases in both April and March 2010, and a 6% decline in February 2010.